Looking Ahead: Webcasting's Predictions for 2000
by Charlie White

In this space, we've bashed streaming video and hoped for more bandwidth quite a few times. Well, this year is the one where many of our bandwidth woes will be vanquished, because here at Digital Webcasting, we're ready to predict 2000 as The Year of Broadband.

Look for the world of Webcasting to change drastically for the better as cable companies like Viacom and Time Warner start to roll out cable modem access to the masses. Here's where everyday users will begin to understand what the big deal is about Webcasting. It's the access, stoopid! That's right -- anybody who has a computer and half a brain will soon be jumping onto the Web with a brand new TV show. Uh-oh.

Another prediction we'd like to offer is that of a golden age this year of cartoons on the Web. Even though bandwidth will see a tremendous jump, the ease with which vector-based animated material can be transmitted via the Web gives this hot genre the edge in 2000. Not only will lots of new cartoons appear, but expect to see some old favorites gain new life on Web sites everywhere.

A big trend in 2000 will be for consolidation of Web streaming tools, with Play Inc. and Media 100 leading the way with their GlobeCaster and iFinish, respectively. As it stands, it's just too hard for the average person to get a video program up and running on the Web, and these two forward-looking companies are standing at the ready to help all comers. Expect even more me-too companies to offer help with production and distribution of Webcasts as we near the end of the year, as we see the blooming of an entirely new industry taking place literally right before our eyes. Also expect a few leaders to emerge that actually get the whole point of Webcasting -- namely, it's not the same as TV, and it not just a moving Web site, either. It's a whole new medium, and 2000 will kick the whole thing off.

Toward the end of 2000, we'll see more network TV programs Webcasting their programs, just like we saw from The Drew Carey Show last year. The big networks smell cash, and also fear that their half-century-long license to print money is about to expire. With an influx of venture capital dollars, ad money and talent, the Web will become even more compelling for millions more viewers. Because of this, we'll see the TV networks' gigantic audience numbers continue their freefall.

2000 will be the year that the big record companies flop with their proprietary "security" protocols for net-distributed music. MP3 will continue to be the de facto standard for music on the Web, and anything that smacks of security or paying money to record company suits will fail miserably. Look for 2000 to be the year where the profits for music begin to turn back to the musicians, with the shareware concept taking hold across the world. This way, musicians will make millions of dollars that otherwise would have gone into the pockets of bloodsucking greedmeisters at fossilized record companies.

And yes, 2000 will be the year when the concept of the Web competing with TV will become almost a reality. But not quite. However, breakthroughs on the horizon promise to make the job of compressing all these video signals almost easy. In particular, there will be new software compression schemes that have been sitting in the vaults of huge corporations for years that will finally see the light of day. Some of these will be powerful enough to change the world -- including making it possible for high definition television signals to be easily transmitted over copper wire.

Really? That's remarkable. Count on it. Happy New Year, everyone!

Charlie White has been writing about new media and digital video since it was the laughingstock of the television industry. A technology journalist and columnist for the past seven years, White is also an Emmy-winning Executive Producer, video editor and shot-calling PBS TV director. Talk back -- send him a note!

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